The conventional wisdom in Egypt is that Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, Amr Moussa and Mohammed Morsi will take first, second and third in some order on Wednesday and Thursday's first round of presidential elections. That's not entirely borne out in polling — Al Masry Al Youm showed strong results, for instance, for Ahmad Shafiq — but each of the candidates has distinct reasons to believe he will advance from the first round of elections.
Morsi in particular faces weak polling results. Al Masry Al Youm and pollster Baseera found Morsi with just 1.5 percent support, though the poll also showed 54 percent of Egyptians undecided. Polling in Egypt is unreliable; polling in the various governates outside of major cities, like Cairo and Alexandria, is difficult and costly. Using cell phones and landlines as Baseera did works well in the United States, but it's unclear how well this succeeds in Egypt. A poll by the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in April showed Morsi with just 0.9 percent support. The Brookings Institution found Morsi with eight percent support as of May 10.
And yet, observers still count Morsi among the front-runners, even while so-called "dark horse" candidates Hamdeen Sabahi and Ahmad Shafiq climb in support. Why?
Well, for starters, Morsi is the Freedom and Justice Party's candidate. The FJP is the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the most potent political forces in Egypt, and certainly the most organized. The only other forces that can lay claim to the level of response the Brothers can offer are, potentially, the revolutionary youth and the Salafists, through their mosque network. But the Brothers are unrivaled in organization, leading to an overwhelming victory in the parliamentary elections. One expects whatever percent of the Egyptian public holding membership in the Brotherhood — 25, 30, 40 percent — a majority of those will back Morsi.
But there is dissent in the ranks of the Brothers. For months, the Ikhwan claimed they would not field a presidential candidate. Of course, they claimed they would not contest more than a third of the parliamentary seats, either. Neither of those claims were true, which doesn't mean the Brothers were lying — it just means they couldn't resist the lure of power, nor could they trust others with managing the revolution in the way they want it to go. These moves have not only discredited the Ikhwan among the populace — they've caused dissent in their own ranks, and for once, even the Brotherhood couldn't hide it from the outside world. Three Brotherhood leaders resigned after the decision, which was reportedly closely contested. Liberals and other Islamists have publicly criticized the FJP's decision.
Morsi still is running with the full support of the remaining Brotherhood members. The disqualification of the original FJP nominee, Khairat al-Shater, and a popular Salafist preacher, Hazem Saleh Abu Ismail, also may add to Morsi's vote column — he is certainly more conservative than Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, Amr Moussa, Hamdeen Sabahi and Ahmad Shafiq. But the Salafist leaders (though they have much less control over their believers than the Ikhwan) have united behind Aboul Fotouh.
What is certain is that Morsi divides the Islamist vote between Aboul Fotouh and himself, with a small percentage to Mohammed Selim El-Awa of the Al-Wasat Party. But the relative unity of Salafists behind Aboul Fotouh, combined with his popularity among liberals and moderates, unmatched by Morsi, makes Aboul Fotouh much more formidable.
I see Morsi as the weakest of the "top three" contenders and the most likely to drop to fourth, behind either Shafiq or Sabahi. But he could just as easily finish first behind an overwhelming wave of support from the Freedom and Justice Party rank and file. On Wednesday, we will see our first indicator of just how strong the Brothers are in this election.
Morsi in particular faces weak polling results. Al Masry Al Youm and pollster Baseera found Morsi with just 1.5 percent support, though the poll also showed 54 percent of Egyptians undecided. Polling in Egypt is unreliable; polling in the various governates outside of major cities, like Cairo and Alexandria, is difficult and costly. Using cell phones and landlines as Baseera did works well in the United States, but it's unclear how well this succeeds in Egypt. A poll by the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in April showed Morsi with just 0.9 percent support. The Brookings Institution found Morsi with eight percent support as of May 10.
And yet, observers still count Morsi among the front-runners, even while so-called "dark horse" candidates Hamdeen Sabahi and Ahmad Shafiq climb in support. Why?
Well, for starters, Morsi is the Freedom and Justice Party's candidate. The FJP is the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the most potent political forces in Egypt, and certainly the most organized. The only other forces that can lay claim to the level of response the Brothers can offer are, potentially, the revolutionary youth and the Salafists, through their mosque network. But the Brothers are unrivaled in organization, leading to an overwhelming victory in the parliamentary elections. One expects whatever percent of the Egyptian public holding membership in the Brotherhood — 25, 30, 40 percent — a majority of those will back Morsi.
But there is dissent in the ranks of the Brothers. For months, the Ikhwan claimed they would not field a presidential candidate. Of course, they claimed they would not contest more than a third of the parliamentary seats, either. Neither of those claims were true, which doesn't mean the Brothers were lying — it just means they couldn't resist the lure of power, nor could they trust others with managing the revolution in the way they want it to go. These moves have not only discredited the Ikhwan among the populace — they've caused dissent in their own ranks, and for once, even the Brotherhood couldn't hide it from the outside world. Three Brotherhood leaders resigned after the decision, which was reportedly closely contested. Liberals and other Islamists have publicly criticized the FJP's decision.
Morsi still is running with the full support of the remaining Brotherhood members. The disqualification of the original FJP nominee, Khairat al-Shater, and a popular Salafist preacher, Hazem Saleh Abu Ismail, also may add to Morsi's vote column — he is certainly more conservative than Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, Amr Moussa, Hamdeen Sabahi and Ahmad Shafiq. But the Salafist leaders (though they have much less control over their believers than the Ikhwan) have united behind Aboul Fotouh.
What is certain is that Morsi divides the Islamist vote between Aboul Fotouh and himself, with a small percentage to Mohammed Selim El-Awa of the Al-Wasat Party. But the relative unity of Salafists behind Aboul Fotouh, combined with his popularity among liberals and moderates, unmatched by Morsi, makes Aboul Fotouh much more formidable.
I see Morsi as the weakest of the "top three" contenders and the most likely to drop to fourth, behind either Shafiq or Sabahi. But he could just as easily finish first behind an overwhelming wave of support from the Freedom and Justice Party rank and file. On Wednesday, we will see our first indicator of just how strong the Brothers are in this election.
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