Egypt's first round of presidential elections is over, and the result is, in my opinion, the worst possible matchup of contenders. Tomorrow, I'll get into the results a bit more and what they might mean for Egypt (I'm also waiting on a rumored meeting between Hamdeen Sabahi, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and Mohammed Morsi to take place Saturday). For coverage in the interim, visit Al-Ahram Online and Egypt Independent, as well as The Arabist and Bassem Sabry's Twitters.
In the meantime, I want to run through the runoff matchups that didn't happen, and what they would have meant, what choice they would have offered and what Egyptians might have thought. I offer these in no particular order, as my own ranking of "best-to-worst" is skewed in part by my support of Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and in part because I'm not Egyptian.
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh vs. Hamdeen Sabahi: This extremely unlikely runoff scenario offers an interesting choice. It would have meant, contrary to what actually happened, the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign apparatus was a) unable to keep its youth in line and b) unable to turn out its members in sufficient numbers. Moreover, it would probably have reflected higher turnout from the revolutionary youth (benefitting Sabahi) and better organization from Salafists (benefitting Aboul Fotouh). None of that happened. Sabahi nearly made the real runoff, though, for reasons which are still somewhat inexplicable. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 65-35.
Hamdeen Sabahi vs. Ahmed Shafiq: This would never have happened, as the felool candidates (Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq) split the old NDP vote (to some extent). What it would have meant in terms of turnout is somewhat unclear. The Islamists failing to get a single candidate in the top two would represent an astonishing failure on the part of two campaigns and a longstanding power apparatus. It would have reflected deep disgust on the part of the former FJP voters. And it would mean the Egyptian people swung 180 degrees from their FJP and Nour support to elect a horrible anti-revolution candidate and the leftist candidate most identifiable with the revolutionary youth. Prediction: Sabahi, 80-20.
Mohammed Morsi vs. Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh: This was the showdown many may have hoped for. The MB would have successfully replicated its support in the parliamentary elections. The Salafists, too, would have held a reasonably disciplined line, and liberals and moderates would have voted in fair-to-middling numbers for Aboul Fotouh. But for some reason, the Salafists ended up supporting Morsi or Sabahi in Alexandria. This result also might have alienated the revolutionary youth. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 60-40.
Ahmed Shafiq vs. Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh: Another matchup that could have happened, but didn't, because of the strength of the MB's campaign apparatus. This would have offered Egyptians a choice between unity and division, between a return to Mubarak and an inclusive way forward. The MB would have been incensed, of course, but there was no way Shafiq could have ever received their support. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 80-20.
Amr Moussa vs. Hamdeen Sabahi: In the case of the revolution versus the sorta-kinda felool, Egypt would have turned its back entirely on the Islamists. Salafist support for Aboul Fotouh would never have materialized, and the MB would simply have stayed home. The revolutionary youth would have been excited by the prospect of Sabahi's victory, and most of Egypt would have calmly settled on Amr Moussa. The question is, would anyone have voted for him? Moussa ran on an "everyone's second choice" strategy, which failed to turn out voters. Prediction: Sabahi, 55-45.
Mohammed Morsi vs. Amr Moussa: So many people had predicted this matchup, along with Aboul Fotouh and Morsi. It would represent the clash of secularism and Islamism, and the disorganization of the Salafist movement. Well, secularism and Islamism clashed, all right. But in a wholly different fashion. Shafiq is a different type of felool — at least Moussa endorsed and talked about the revolution. In the end, I think Moussa's second choice strategy would have worked here. Prediction: Moussa, 60-40.
Ahmed Shafiq vs. Amr Moussa: Some people would argue this is the real nightmare scenario, where the Islamists not only failed to get a candidate in the second round, but the revolutionary youth failed to get either Khaled Ali or Hamdeen Sabahi in. There would be no candidate of the revolution. There would only be Hosni Mubarak and a blend of Mubarak and the revolution. Islamists would be shut out. But still, this matchup is less polarizing, and the winner would have been clear. Prediction: Moussa, 70-30.
Mohammed Morsi vs. Hamdeen Sabahi: This almost happened, and we know why. Sabahi's campaign surged late, driven by liberals wary of Aboul Fotouh's endorsement by the Salafists and secularists disengaged with the Moussa campaign. Salafist support crumbled entirely in Alexandria, which Sabahi won handedly. If Shafiq had collapsed in Giza and Cairo as much as he did in Alexandria, and done slightly poorer in the Nile Delta, this might be the matchup today. And its result is hard to predict. Islamists would unite around Morsi; liberals and moderates around Sabahi. If the parliamentary results are anything to go by, Morsi wins in a close one. Prediction: Morsi, 55-45.
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh vs. Amr Moussa: This was a matchup many, including Egyptian state TV in its debate, predicted. The polls showed this two weeks out, and had elections been held then, we would have seen a different story. This is the least exciting matchup, perhaps, but also maybe the one best for the revolution. It offers a liberal, accepting Islamist endorsed by those left and right, and a pragmatic secularist, sorta-kinda felool, sorta-kinda revolutionary. Aboul Fotouh would have dominated with MB and Salafist support. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 65-35.
Tomorrow, we'll look at the actual reality: Morsi vs. Shafiq, the Islamists vs. the regime. For a long time, this battle was fought in secret and in the prisons. For the first time, Egyptians must choose sides in public.
In the meantime, I want to run through the runoff matchups that didn't happen, and what they would have meant, what choice they would have offered and what Egyptians might have thought. I offer these in no particular order, as my own ranking of "best-to-worst" is skewed in part by my support of Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and in part because I'm not Egyptian.
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh vs. Hamdeen Sabahi: This extremely unlikely runoff scenario offers an interesting choice. It would have meant, contrary to what actually happened, the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign apparatus was a) unable to keep its youth in line and b) unable to turn out its members in sufficient numbers. Moreover, it would probably have reflected higher turnout from the revolutionary youth (benefitting Sabahi) and better organization from Salafists (benefitting Aboul Fotouh). None of that happened. Sabahi nearly made the real runoff, though, for reasons which are still somewhat inexplicable. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 65-35.
Hamdeen Sabahi vs. Ahmed Shafiq: This would never have happened, as the felool candidates (Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq) split the old NDP vote (to some extent). What it would have meant in terms of turnout is somewhat unclear. The Islamists failing to get a single candidate in the top two would represent an astonishing failure on the part of two campaigns and a longstanding power apparatus. It would have reflected deep disgust on the part of the former FJP voters. And it would mean the Egyptian people swung 180 degrees from their FJP and Nour support to elect a horrible anti-revolution candidate and the leftist candidate most identifiable with the revolutionary youth. Prediction: Sabahi, 80-20.
Mohammed Morsi vs. Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh: This was the showdown many may have hoped for. The MB would have successfully replicated its support in the parliamentary elections. The Salafists, too, would have held a reasonably disciplined line, and liberals and moderates would have voted in fair-to-middling numbers for Aboul Fotouh. But for some reason, the Salafists ended up supporting Morsi or Sabahi in Alexandria. This result also might have alienated the revolutionary youth. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 60-40.
Ahmed Shafiq vs. Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh: Another matchup that could have happened, but didn't, because of the strength of the MB's campaign apparatus. This would have offered Egyptians a choice between unity and division, between a return to Mubarak and an inclusive way forward. The MB would have been incensed, of course, but there was no way Shafiq could have ever received their support. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 80-20.
Amr Moussa vs. Hamdeen Sabahi: In the case of the revolution versus the sorta-kinda felool, Egypt would have turned its back entirely on the Islamists. Salafist support for Aboul Fotouh would never have materialized, and the MB would simply have stayed home. The revolutionary youth would have been excited by the prospect of Sabahi's victory, and most of Egypt would have calmly settled on Amr Moussa. The question is, would anyone have voted for him? Moussa ran on an "everyone's second choice" strategy, which failed to turn out voters. Prediction: Sabahi, 55-45.
Mohammed Morsi vs. Amr Moussa: So many people had predicted this matchup, along with Aboul Fotouh and Morsi. It would represent the clash of secularism and Islamism, and the disorganization of the Salafist movement. Well, secularism and Islamism clashed, all right. But in a wholly different fashion. Shafiq is a different type of felool — at least Moussa endorsed and talked about the revolution. In the end, I think Moussa's second choice strategy would have worked here. Prediction: Moussa, 60-40.
Ahmed Shafiq vs. Amr Moussa: Some people would argue this is the real nightmare scenario, where the Islamists not only failed to get a candidate in the second round, but the revolutionary youth failed to get either Khaled Ali or Hamdeen Sabahi in. There would be no candidate of the revolution. There would only be Hosni Mubarak and a blend of Mubarak and the revolution. Islamists would be shut out. But still, this matchup is less polarizing, and the winner would have been clear. Prediction: Moussa, 70-30.
Mohammed Morsi vs. Hamdeen Sabahi: This almost happened, and we know why. Sabahi's campaign surged late, driven by liberals wary of Aboul Fotouh's endorsement by the Salafists and secularists disengaged with the Moussa campaign. Salafist support crumbled entirely in Alexandria, which Sabahi won handedly. If Shafiq had collapsed in Giza and Cairo as much as he did in Alexandria, and done slightly poorer in the Nile Delta, this might be the matchup today. And its result is hard to predict. Islamists would unite around Morsi; liberals and moderates around Sabahi. If the parliamentary results are anything to go by, Morsi wins in a close one. Prediction: Morsi, 55-45.
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh vs. Amr Moussa: This was a matchup many, including Egyptian state TV in its debate, predicted. The polls showed this two weeks out, and had elections been held then, we would have seen a different story. This is the least exciting matchup, perhaps, but also maybe the one best for the revolution. It offers a liberal, accepting Islamist endorsed by those left and right, and a pragmatic secularist, sorta-kinda felool, sorta-kinda revolutionary. Aboul Fotouh would have dominated with MB and Salafist support. Prediction: Aboul Fotouh, 65-35.
Tomorrow, we'll look at the actual reality: Morsi vs. Shafiq, the Islamists vs. the regime. For a long time, this battle was fought in secret and in the prisons. For the first time, Egyptians must choose sides in public.
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